渐进式加仓 Progressive Exposure

股魔MPA提问环节中，经常会有一些常见主题的反复提问，我会陆陆续续分类整理上传，今天这一篇来自股魔2022年8月29日的Q&A，股魔和Mark Ritchie II分别讲述了如何从现金仓位逐渐加仓。

如果你懒得看：字幕如下：

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詹姆斯提问，你是如何从一个很小的仓位开始加仓，

James is asking, how do you move up your position size from a tiny position,

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感觉市场走起后，你是立刻加仓到25%，还是逐步加仓到25%

feeling the market position, do you move up to a quarter position right away, or do you move up incrementally, building up to a quarter size position?

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这完全看你自己 我可以告诉你我是怎么做的

That's completely personal. I mean, I can tell you how I do it in market.

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马克可以告诉你他是如何做的

Mark，You can tell you he does it.

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通常我有两套方案

You know, I generally am gonna come in with, um it now, look, I can do it to two ways.

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当我从现金开始第一次买入时 我还不确定市场是否运行良好 如果一些股票企稳 一些股票会盘整并等待突破

When I 1st get into the market, just say, I'm cash, and I want to, you know, I'm not sure yet if the markets, you know, doing well, if stocks are doing well, some setup start setting up.

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我会用很多方法来做

I will do in a number of ways.

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我可能买入5只股票，每只5%，一共25%

I might take five 5% positions to get my 25% on.

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通常我的初始投资比例是25% 30%左右

Usually I try to go 25, you know, percent, 30 %, one 3rd of my portfole.

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如果盈利了 我将提高仓位到50%

If I start bringing into the market, if that works, I'll move to 50 %.

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从这开始 如果我能看到我想看到的 我通常会变得非常激进

And from there, if I get to see what I need to see, I usually go right to very aggressive.

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但如果你想要提升仓位到75%甚至100%，也没问题

But you can move up 75 a hundred if you want that, fine.

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但如果我想要更容易控制，我也可能只买1只，1只就25%，或者如果没有那么多股票等待突破，或者如果我觉得某只股票真的，真的，非常紧凑，非常棒，我可能会买入这一只股票25%仓位。

But I might also do that with just one 25% position if I want more control, or maybe there's not as many setups, if I feel like I want more control, and or if I feel like the setup is really, really, just super solid and great, I might just go into that one stock.

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我的风险是一样的，因为我的止损是不管我是对5只股票进行10%的止损，还是对1只股票进行10%的止损，总体风险敞口都是25%，我的风险是一样的。

My risk is going to be the same, because my stop loss is regardless of if I put it, no, a 10% stop on five stocks, or 10% stop stock on one stock, and the overall exposure is 25 %, I'm going to have the same risk.

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所以我可能会用这两种方法中的一种

So I might do it, you know, one of those two ways.

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但这完全取决于“投手向你投来什么样的球” ，比如什么样的股票在盘整，多少只股票在盘整

But that is really going to depend on what type of pitches are coming over the plate, you know, what, what's setting up, how many stocks are setting up.

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所以这真的没有办法量化

So it's really, there's not a way to really quantify that.

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我想说的是 通常25%是我的试水仓位

Except the one thing I would say is that I-I-I would say, you know, normally I go in about, you know, a 25% is sort of my 1st tone to war.

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我也可能从2只股票开始

Now, I might start with just two couple positions.

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每只5%-10%，试一试

05-10 percent. Just try a few.

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你知道 我们只是用脚趾沾点水试试 如果盈利 那么立刻加仓

You know, we'll just light little toes in the water, but if they work, I go right up to, you know, that initial amount.

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你呢，马克？是的，我通常做法是一样的。

I know, how about you? Mark Yeah, normally it would be the same.

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我通常会买2-3只

I usually would do maybe two or three names, uh?

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用差不多20%到30%的仓位

And in somewhere to get me to maybe 20 to 30% invested, or something like that.

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除非某一只股票好到我觉得如果这都不能赚钱，那没有股票能赚钱，这时候我才会给这只股票多一点的仓位

I would only do a bigger size, say on one name, if I really felt like it was sort of a indicative of, like, maker break, meaning if this set up can't work, nothing's gonna work.

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我举个例子，比如亚马逊，在新冠病毒见底后，考虑到现在世界上每个人都在亚马逊上购物，它有良好的趋势和良好的基本面，如果亚马逊的股票都不能突破并不止损，那我不就不想交易了。

I gave that example, say, with Amazon, after the covid lows, it was like, look, you know, amazon, if this, if this can't hold, given that everybody in the world is shopping on Amazon right now, it had good momentum and good fundamentals, then I don't want to play.

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但一般情况下 我不会有这么强烈的对某一只股票的感觉

But normally I don't have that strong of you and anyone set up.

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所以如果我有5到6只股票等待突破 我可能会依据突破顺序买2到3只

So I'll look at, you know, if we've got five or six names, I'm going to, I'm going to try and buy, you know, maybe two or three in the order to break out.

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再看看反馈

And then again, just look at the feedback.

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嗯 如果反馈好的话 会快速加仓到50%

Um, if good feedback, I'm looking to go to 50% rain on relatively quickly.

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如果你真正思考过股魔的Progressive Exposure并且实盘操作过，你一定有过类似的困惑：

• 从现金仓位逐步建仓开始，如果有了10%的浮盈，我能进一步扩大仓位吗？

• 是否必须等待10%的浮盈确认盈利？

• 如果扩大仓位后，浮盈又变少了怎么办？

  今天这段小Q&A可以解答这个问题。

如果你懒得看：字幕如下：

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如果你用浮盈作为安全垫来买入新的股票，但浮盈被止损了

OK, P-E If you finance a trade using open profits and get stopped out on it

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你是否等待其他股票的浮盈变多，再建仓买入新的仓位

do you look for more progress on the open positions before starting another trade?

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马克 这个问题绝对是为你准备的

Mark. That's one definitely for you.

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如果你用浮盈作为安全垫来买入新的股票，但浮盈被止损了

If you finance a trade using open profits and get stopped out on it, you look

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你是否会等待其他持仓的浮盈变多，再买入新的仓位

for more progress on the open positions before

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是的 这取决于我有多少安全垫

starting another trade? Yeah, it would all depend on how much cushion I'm sitting on.

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例如，我所有的持仓表现如何

So yeah, how are the the open position?

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假设你的交易完全正确

So let's say you, you do it exactly right?

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例如你买入了一些仓位，比如是遇到了公布财报或者股价上涨较多，止盈了一部分，但剩余部分被止损了

You you jockey for position. You've got a few names on You take off a piece, maybe into a an earnings gap, or or it gets extended, and then you wind up getting stopped on the rest.

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我会如何处理呢？如果我其他持仓都在盈亏平衡，没有太多浮盈，我可能不会再买入新的仓位

So how am I? If I'm at break even on everything else, and I'm not showing much of a cushion, I'm probably not taking another trade.

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例外情况是 如果我看到大量的股票盘整好了等待突破 或者买入很小的一笔（股魔）这是一个很好的观点

The exception would be, if I see a ton of setups, or maybe a small trade, that's a good point.

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我可能会买入很少的一点，只要有很多盘整的等待突破的股票，我都很希望至少尝试一些

Yeah, I'll dip another toe. Um, if As long as they're setups, I'm always potentially interested in dipping and toe.

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马克的观点是对的 我不会让自己在没有安全垫的情况下暴露在大的回撤之下

But yet, to mark's point, it just, I'm not going to open myself up to to bigger damage if I if I don't have that, you know, cushion.

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我始终希望能有安全垫让我来依靠 那些浮盈或者止盈就是我可以依靠的用来加仓的安全垫

I'm always looking for something to lean on, guys, you want to trade from a position of strength, and those open profits or booked profits, is the strength I want to lean on.

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另一点是 在这个环境中 有足够多的等待突破的股票 这使得交易足够的分散 不会像只有4-8只股票等待突破 进而很拥挤

So the other point I would make, though, and I think this is a good example in this environment, there've been enough setups, but think of it in terms of, if there's so many setups where it automatically reduces the amount of crowding, because there's, there's so many names where it's impossible for everybody, to everybody's eyes, to be on the same four to eight names.

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这才是你想看到的

And and that's really what you want.

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你想要这样的市场环境：即你看到很多牛股起飞，就像随便扔飞镖选股都能赚钱一样，但对那些真正懂行的，这样的环境正是赚大钱的时机

You want an environment where you know that herd is just, it's got so many, you know, bulls names in it that, you know, it's almost like, it feels like you could throw darts and make money, but for those who are really good at this, that's where they make just a ton of money.

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所以我想说我肯定会再买入，但不会放大整体的风险

So, yeah, I'm, I'm, I would say, yes, I'll certainly put on another one, but I'm not going to be just, um, taking, you know, more overall risk.

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如果我想买入新的仓位，我可能会收紧原有仓位的止损

I may tighten up some other existing positions if I'm going to continue to take new ones

2月16日的Minervini Private Access推荐信中写道：

With the STEM Model now on ORANGE and some hints of distribution, I would expect less breakouts to work and the magnitude of those that do to be less. We are more likely to get breakout failures, squats and reversals.

Does this mean do not play breakouts that set up properly?

No!

It means be more cautious. Be incremental, and position size more conservatively. Overall exposure should also be tempered until you gain traction and are working with profits.

Just take it a bit slower and temper you expectations.

随着STEM模型变成橙色并且指数派发提示，我预期成功的突破会变少，并且突破后的涨幅变小。我们可能会看到突破失败、深蹲、反转等。这是否意味着我们不再买那些盘整好的突破了？

不。

这意味着我们应该更小心。慢慢进场逐渐加仓，仓位控制更保守。整体的仓位应当减小，直到获得了利润垫。

慢慢进场，并降低你的预期收益。

不得不说，股魔把渐进式仓位控制刻入了骨髓。那为什么要用渐进式仓位控制呢？

你可能会说：为了在市场有利时能用更大仓位来交易，在市场不利时能用更小仓位来交易。

其实还有一点，是因为渐进式仓位控制，比如从最开始5%的试水，逐步加仓到10%-20%，前一次交易的盈利为后一手交易提供了安全垫。当你遇到好的行情连续获利并逐渐仓位达到20%时，其实你初始承担的只有5%仓位的风险。

也即，你用最开始的5%仓位对应的风险，实现了后来20%的仓位，在盈亏比方面形成了不对称。假如行情对你不利，你只有5%仓位对应的亏损；假如行情对你有利，你有20%的仓位来帮你获利。

这和一些做绝对收益公募、私募逻辑很类似，比如先买入一些债券，并用债券的预期利润作为安全垫来逐步交易股票。

渐进式仓位控制，应用于你的交易了吗？

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本期的教学视频片段来源于7月10日股魔特选账户的Q&A，两个片段内容很短，但都很重要，都是曾经长期困扰我的问题。

片段1：关于Progressive Exposure（渐进式加仓）

从现金仓位逐渐加仓到满仓的过程中，股魔教给我们要用渐进式加仓，可是什么时候加，加多少，尤其前期没止盈的浮盈能否作为加仓的Traction，常常困扰我。如果你也有类似的疑问，请看这段：

片段2：关于如何利用市场Feedback来切换短线交易还是波段交易（Short Term trading or Swing trading）

另一个之前长期困扰我的问题是，保持3%-5%的止损，股票常常达不到10%的目标，就跌回来止损。是否应该提早取利，又担心错过了利润；但看了最近MPA USIC前几名的视频采访，好像没有一个人的平均盈利达到10%，连8%都没有。是否我们应该把止盈的Target设置的更早？如果你也为这个问题困扰，请看这段：

很久没有整理教学内容了，主要是不容易得到正向的反馈，坚持起来没有意思。

大家且看且珍惜，但你的转发，说不定能让我坚持的久一点。

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非常重要！建议反复观看！看懂了，你将永久告别亏损！

股魔经常提到，要根据持仓是否有牵引（Traction）来决定渐进式加仓的进度。不知道大家在实操中是否困惑？这个Traction到底是必须来源于止盈后的利润，还是可以依托于未止盈的浮盈？再或者如果只是Watchlist的集中突破，没有买入的利润，只是看到环境变好，是否可以作为依托？

我个人操作中，之前最痛心疾首情况发生在：账户有了浮盈，依托浮盈扩大了仓位，但很快市场转向，浮盈回撤，新的仓位又被止损，雪上加霜。造成账户预想外的回撤。

下面的视频很好的解答了应对措施，总结起来：应该引入风险预算（Risk Budget）或者最坏情况（Worst Case Scenrio）数据，来评估渐进式加仓。但你仅有浮盈，又看到大量的突破时，为了维持Worst Case Scenrio不扩大，要么缩小止损、要么提前止盈，来为新的仓位提供Risk Budget。

视频Q&A背景：美股自1月17日以来，有大量的突破，突破后平均能有3-5%的浮盈，但很少有能止盈的。提问者问Mark Ritchie当前的仓位大小，以及如何依托Traction进行的仓位扩大。

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非常重要！建议反复观看！看懂了，你将永久告别亏损！

股魔经常提到，要根据持仓是否有牵引（Traction）来决定渐进式加仓的进度。不知道大家在实操中是否困惑？这个Traction到底是必须来源于止盈后的利润，还是可以依托于未止盈的浮盈？再或者如果只是Watchlist的集中突破，没有买入的利润，只是看到环境变好，是否可以作为依托？

我个人操作中，之前最痛心疾首情况发生在：账户有了浮盈，依托浮盈扩大了仓位，但很快市场转向，浮盈回撤，新的仓位又被止损，雪上加霜。造成账户预想外的回撤。

下面的视频很好的解答了应对措施，总结起来：应该引入风险预算（Risk Budget）或者最坏情况（Worst Case Scenrio）数据，来评估渐进式加仓。但你仅有浮盈，又看到大量的突破时，为了维持Worst Case Scenrio不扩大，要么缩小止损、要么提前止盈，来为新的仓位提供Risk Budget。

视频Q&A背景：美股自1月17日以来，有大量的突破，突破后平均能有3-5%的浮盈，但很少有能止盈的。提问者问Mark Ritchie当前的仓位大小，以及如何依托Traction进行的仓位扩大。

▶点击观看微信视频

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你是否曾经因为看到指数上涨，就拼命加仓，结果造成亏损？

又是否曾经看到周围的人赚钱，就拼命加仓，最后还是亏损？

渐进式加仓要以你自己账户的表现为依托，下面这篇Q&A做了解答

今天这篇，Mark Ritchie讲述在最近一个月中，他们是如何从0仓位到逐渐满仓的。

看到了哪些Traction，基于更多的Setup逐步加仓，很有实盘指导意义

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