个股追踪案例

Low Cheat是股魔自己创造的说法，其实相当于在杯子下1/3处的杯柄，相对来说胜率会较传统的Handle要低。股魔经常在大盘股或者备受关注的股票中使用Low Cheat。其实类似于抢跑，为了较传统突破买入盈亏比更大一点，而提前买入。Low Cheat相较Cheat和Handle胜率略低，但在盈亏比上得到了补偿。

商汤科技近期的走势仿佛在复制谷歌和推特，不知道能否走出Low Cheat并突破。对比商汤上市至今的走势，和谷歌的日线图是不是几乎一毛一样。

类似的大盘股IPO，形成Low Cheat再突破的，还有很多先例：

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商汤科技（0020）像极了突破前的谷歌和推特！

越来越像了，加更一篇，看看周一能不能放量突破。

商汤科技（0020）像极了突破前的谷歌和推特！

明天如果能放量突破7块钱，我是要买的。

止损6.6？6%不到的止损。

这是个很好的机会来解释我是如何交易这只股票及其原因，我将从不同角度解释这笔交易。首先，图中是我的买点和卖点，我已经在底仓基础上反复买卖了几个月，并且一直再说这是一直明显的领头羊。买点在图的下方，卖点在上方。

我们的观点是，这是AI板块的领头羊，无论是参考@Beth_Kindig的观点还是其他比我更聪明的基金。我们开始通过回撤买入（Pullback Buy）了一些并卖掉，然后又买回来并在昨天和今天降低了仓位。现在仓位已经降到了我可以忍受回撤到50日均线，我也把止盈调整为50日均线止盈（50ma trailing stop）或者有效收盘在10周均线以下作为止盈，但仓位必须削减到让自己舒服， 因为此时账户的回撤会很大。

对我来说，本该是令人失望的，因为我的仓位没有足够大，这经常困扰我。当一笔交易盈利时，没有人认为自己的仓位足够大。

然而，专业交易者的想法应该是如下。股价已经偏离了（extended），并且在这个巨大的跳涨之前已经达到了我风险的很多倍。我现在当然可以赌一把，但考虑到这段不容易赚钱的时间已经持续了很久，我至少想保证自己的资金曲线不出现大幅亏损。

在热门股上承担额外的风险并非明智之举。更何况我的仓位之所以很小，恰恰是因为这段行情很难赚钱所致。在这种行情下你理应降低仓位，否则你将面临大幅回撤，你的资金和信心都将受损。所以这只股票我的仓位很小，但也接近翻倍。正如@markminervini所说，我更希望一只小的仓位翻倍，而不是一笔大的仓位但不赚钱。

这只股票暴涨的另外一个关键是那些“价值投资”的人全都搞错了。他们关注P/E 以及一些没用的指标，然而事实是当一只成长股处于盈利放大/成长阶段时，机构投资者会买爆所有人。这并不是一次卖空的轧空，因为很少有人做空这只股票，Twitter上很多价值投资者在大喊股价高估，进而错过了上涨。如果你想做空这种股票，随便你。但你应该学习历史，然后等待周线图上出现放量下跌，这是机构开始清仓的信号。因为机构如果不清仓，你做空的观点一文不值。你可以看看我标注的2022年走坏的成长股。你会看到，当他们出现放量下跌时，我指出了他们，这正是做空或者寻找做空的时机。这只股票正处于技术面和基本面最强的趋势，能踩碎一切上升路中的阻碍。

对于那些没有持有这只股票的，仍然拥有一线希望，那就是市场还会有新的领头羊。当牛市真正开始时，机构会竭尽全力去寻找新的领头羊。希望这波上涨并不是熊市中的短暂回调。以上是我的基本观点。我整体仓位并不大，因为在我看来除非你持续的看到交易盈利，否则你不应该扩大仓位。

A great time to explain how I managed this & why as I was planning more comments on this stock from a few perspectives...first of all here are my entries for this name as I've been trading around a position for a few months and talking about how this was the clear liquid leader..

Buys are below, sells on top. So our view was that this was going to be king of AI etc, follow @Beth_Kindig or others smarter than me for more of the fundies/narrative. So we bought some on a pb buy and sold some, then bought it back etc and lightened up yesterday & today as well. Now it's down to the size that I can stomach a pullback to the 50day, now I switch to a 50-day trail (which I've been using for a while) or meaningful close below the 10wk but had to trim to the extent I'm comfortable as the pullback in P+L could be huge at this point...

The real tradeoff for me or temptation is to feel disappointed as I 'didn't have on a HUGE line' to really move the needle and THIS is the trap for many, and for my thinking at times. NO ONE ever feels like they have enough on of a great trade when it's working...

And here is how pro's think imo. The stock was extended and at a multiple of my risk BEFORE an insane gap. Now I could have rolled the dice but given that I've been in a period where wins have been hard to come by and I need to keep my equity line at least sideways...

Taking additional risk on headlines is NOT the way to manage things. Furthermore my position was/is smaller precisely because things haven't been working consistently and you have to trade smaller in those environments otherwise you are subject to drawdowns that will erode too much capital & confidence. So I have a smaller position in a stock that has nearly doubled since I bought it as @markminervini would say 'I'd much prefer a small position in a stock that could double than a huge position in a stock going no where.'

The other key here is to ask WHY this stock is ripping and here is where the 'value camp' with all due respect gets it ALL WRONG!! They focus on P/E and a bunch of meaningless stuff but the reality is when a growth stock is truly in its 'earnings/growth cycle’. The institutions will steam roll everyone. This is NOT a short squeeze as the stock was barely shorted and twitter is full of value people swearing and screaming overvaluation while getting carried out of this trade. If you want to short these type of names be my guest. but you should study history and wait for a big volume break on the weekly first, as that is at least a sign that the institutions are unloading shares because if they aren't selling none of your value thesis matters. Look at ANY broken growth names I highlighted in 2022. You will see that I was highlighting when they were breaking on ENORMOUS volume, that is the time to short or look for short opportunities. This stock is in the strongest part of it's technical & fundamental trend and anyone who has stepped in front has been completely crushed.

Last part is if there is a silver lining for anyone who didn't own it would be that markets need new leadership. This is what institutions that under own stock will do to MANY names if or when a bull gets going in earnest. Here's to hoping this isn't a one off and vs a tip off.

you got the basic idea. I didn't go any heavier on additional buys as in my view if you haven't been consistently 'seeing the ball' then you shouldn't be playing large.

市场回调，没什么看上的股票，也一直没怎么写公众号。

嘉益股份的图越来越教科书，如果这么标准的图形都无法成功突破，那足以证明市场有多么的不友善，足以证明我们应该坐在场外耐心等待。

能否顺利突破，我们拭目以待。

为什么说他教科书：

1、Confirmed Stage 2 uptrend

2、Pivot处画一条横线，Supply很小，只有一根收盘价在最小阻力线之上

3、Pivot很紧凑，3天Pivot只有5%，且连续3天收盘价变动不大；Pivot成交量缩的很小

4、3月22日的小小Shakeout甩掉了很多3月20日前后PBB买入的Weak Hand，比如我！

5、Base中有很多Price Spike，证明有机构在买入

6、从Base底部看到Pivot，成交量放大大于50日均值的柱子，红色多余绿色

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嘉益股份今天的突破，看起来不少散户在里面。从突破时成交量的放大，到中间成交量收缩、股价Squat。期待明天能出现Reversal Recovery来证明自己。

观察列表里渐渐多起来，也许Confirming Leader真的在形成。匠心家居、茶花股份、洪城环境

美股这两天Textbook的Setup也在变多，并且突破的都很痛快，有点3月初A股那种easy dollar的感觉。

有时候看到群里大家讨论的股票都挺丑的，还是多看看这种Model Stocks来提高审美吧。

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嘉益股份Textbook VCP

嘉益股份你买了吗？

今天嘉益股份总算痛快了，恭喜买入并持有的小伙伴们。

嘉益股份突破以来至少给了我们4个买点，分别是红色箭头处：

3月11日 Cheat

3月20日 PBB-Cheat

3月28日 Handle

4月2日 Handle/PBB或者说Reversal Recovery

最近的上涨主要来源于前期突破股票的TBA，匠心家居、齐峰新材等，但新的突破我还是没有找到太多，所以我没有其他广大公众号那么乐观。甚至看到别的公众号都天天赚钱，也想策略漂移哈哈。

今天买了个PowerPlay，跌的很惨，明天一早就要止损掉。印象中PowerPlay还没在A股中赚到过钱。如果你看到过A股成功的PowerPlay案例，可以留言分享。

最后，如果你跟着我在嘉益股份上赚到钱了，请文末点个赞，或者分享公众号给更多的人。我想看看有多少人赚到钱，支撑我写下去。

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是不是很奇怪，4月7日大盘暴跌、所属板块也大跌，潍柴重机却再走独立行情。周线图上看，虽然从Stage2开始已经翻了4倍，但并没有进入Stage3的切换状态。

耐心等待大盘见底，等待潍柴重机右侧的发展，形成Pivot买点。现在还为时尚早。

不卖关子直接上图，$睿创微纳，图中的红色箭头处是之前的几次买入，买入后一直能够hold stop不止损，看看明天能否顺利突破

今天在小红书上刷到了费德勒在某大学毕业典礼上的演讲，开篇他提到自己职业生涯一共1526场单打比赛，赢得了80%的比赛，但让大家猜猜在所有的得分中他赢得了多少？结果只有54%。即使是顶级的网球选手，胜率也只有一半多一点，我们交易股票何尝不是呢？要有耐心，利用那超过50%的一点点优势来致胜。

如果有兴趣，可以点击下面的链接观看。

69 考拉在路上发布了一篇小红书笔记，快来看吧！ 😆 WRIZJO0qPuk8YIo 😆 http://xhslink.com/a/pEz8xGHSrMMfb，复制本条信息，打开【小红书】App查看精彩内容！

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三生国健今天展现了教科书般的VCP突破，长达90+天的基底突破，基底最深处也只有32%左右，你买到了吗？

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